Archive for Elections

The End of the GOP?

Posted in Immigration, Politics, Religion with tags , , , , on June 28, 2010 by raingeg

According to an article at FiveThirtyEitht.com last week by Tom Schaller, author of Whistling Past Dixie: How Democrats Can Win Without the South, the Republican party is on its way out if it doesn’t make some serious changes.

The article titled “The Emerging Republican Minority” sounds a bit more like a Democratic wish list and than it does anything that will help Republicans in the future. For many on the left everything revolves around the leftist trinity of race, gender and class. So, naturally they are going to look at the Republican party through that prism and it just doesn’t work.

FiveThirtyEight:

The Center for American Politics’ Ruy Teixeira, one of the top political demographers in the country, has a new paper out in which he examines the two major party coalitions, with a focus on the current and future prospects of the Republican Party. For the GOP, says Teixeira, things look grim, in large part because the country is becoming less white and more educated. He provides specific data showing how college educated voters are growing, and non-college educated shrinking, as shares of the electorate; likewise for the growing non-white v. shrinking white populations.

“The Democratic Party will become even more dominated by the emerging constituencies that gave Barack Obama his historic 2008 victory, while the Republican Party will be forced to move toward the center to compete for these constituencies. As a result, modern conservatism is likely to lose its dominant place in the GOP,” he writes, adding that “the Republican Party as currently constituted is in need of serious and substantial changes in approach.”

Basically, the Republican party is a bunch of white and uneducated people, and since whites are a dying breed then Democrats automatically have an edge. I don’t know what else to get out of this article than that. This furthers the idea that people on the left only look at the world through their leftist trinity.

Teixeira has some recommendations to the Republicans:

Move to the center on social issues.

The culture wars may have worked for a while, but shifting demographics make them a loser for the party today and going forward. A more moderate approach would help with Millennials, where the party must close a yawning gap, and with white college graduates, who still lean Republican but just barely. The party also needs to make a breakthrough with Hispanics, and that won’t happen unless it shifts its image toward social tolerance, especially on immigration.

The breakthrough with Hispanics is more likely to come from cultural issues because Hispanics are overwhelmingly religious Catholics. But its hard for Conservatives to make a breakthrough with American Hispanics with lefties calling them “bigots” “racists” and “xenophobes.” Coupled with Democrats pretty much bribing Hispanic immigrants by selling them the lie that the American dream is given not earned. Its like their hanging a carrot in front of their faces, letting them get a bite that barley suffices and then pulling the carrot away after an election and giving the individual a bite again only after he once again votes for the guy or gal holding the stick.

Pay attention to whites with some college education and to young white working-class voters in general.

The GOP’s hold on the white working class is not secure, and if that slips, the party doesn’t have much to build on to form a successful new coalition. That probably also means offering these voters something more than culture war nostrums and antitax jeremiads.

Another demographic target should be white college graduates, especially those with a four-year degree only.

The party has to stop the bleeding in America’s large metropolitan areas, especially in dynamic, growing suburbs. Keeping and extending GOP support among this demographic is key to taking back the suburbs. White college graduates increasingly see the party as too extreme and out of touch.

The Republican party is too extreme and out of touch? Current polling would greatly go against this finding (here and here). Now I realize that Teixeira is focusing more on the future of the GOP, but I have to point out again that this is all predicated on the idea that non-white highly educated people are all going to swing in favor of the Democrats, and there’s no guarantee that this will happen. Current data would seem to put that point into question too! The Republican party is a party that is becoming more and more “diverse” (as the lefties like to call it). Now, do I really care about what race an individual is? No, not nearly as much as the left cares about the race of their candidates and those who represent their party. I care far more about what they believe and how they intend to do their job as a servant to the people.

But, for the record, lets look at how “diverse” the Republican party is today! Niki Hailey is a Republican and an Indian woman running for Governor in South Carolina. Marco Rubio is a Republican from Florida who’s parents who came to America from Cuba. Tim Scott is a Republican and a black South Carolinian Congressional candidate. Don’t forget about Bobby Jindal who is also Indian and is the Governor of the state of Louisiana. And since gender matters so much these days think of the women that were just elected in primary races in California, Carly Fiorina who is running for the Senate and Meg Whitman who is running for Governor.

In the long run the GOP has to have serious solutions of its own that go beyond cutting taxes. These solutions should use government to address problems but in ways that reflect conservative values and principles. Antigovernment populism is something the party is clearly comfortable with— witness its evolving line of attack on the Obama administration. But it’s likely not enough to just denounce the other side and what they have done or propose to do in populist terms.

I agree with Teixeira on this one, Republicans need to address problems and in ways that “reflect conservative values and principles.” But the irony of his statement is that all of the suggestions he lays out prior to this are not conservative and do not reflect conservative values. That’s because his suggestions are riddled with leftist cliches and pejoratives. “Anti-tax,” “social tolerance” and “anti-government” are all ways the left sees the right and not the way the right would prefer to be represented.

Schaller writes:

What’s interesting to me about most of Teixeira’s suggested changes is that the GOP is either not doing them, or doing something close to the opposite. If anything, the opposite is happening. Indeed, the single biggest storyline of the past year for conservatives and the Republican Party is the rise of the tea party protest movement.

On immigration, if anything the GOP has taken a turn toward anti-amnesty, fence-building xenophobia. The Republicans may have eased off the gas pedal somewhat on tax-cutting, but the conversational shift to deficit reduction and fears of growing government size still carries strong and familiar anti-government overtones.

This seems to be a bit perplexing to Schaller. They are not pushing left-wing positions and they are winning! Could it be that what the left says about Conservatism and Republicans and what they really are is not accurate? Could it be that the politics of the country is not quite as easy to sum up as those on the left think it is? And could it be that college educated non-whites will vote for Conservative candidates instead of leftist Democrats?

HT:  Memeorandum

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“Political Bickering” Is Not The Problem

Posted in Politics with tags , , , on July 2, 2009 by raingeg

There are many left leaning politicians out there, most notably President Obama, that want to see the partisan bickering stop. What does that actually mean? It means be quiet and just let us do whatever we want.

It is completely false to think that that “partisan bickering” is to blame for the many ailments in Washington and politics in general. I actually favor partisanship when it comes to our politicians, it allows for healthy debate and a place where a plethora of ideas can be presented, rather than just one.

They play this card because they need to turn debate into what they call “bickering.” It should be called healthy debate, because its not like they are choosing a color to paint the walls, they are making life changing decisions. Butting heads in politics is a good thing, it would be far worse for a politician to do nothing, because that is not what the people elect politicians to do. What reason would I have to vote if every candidate, afraid to step on the others sides toes, did nothing and gave in to the powerful party in Washington. Would there even be a powerful “party” in Washington? No, and this reasoning makes no sense. Its an emotions game.

We need to look at this as a diversion. Its one of the last plays that the President and his congressional friends have to offer. This is no different than when they tried to make the Republican party look to be what they called “the party of no.” When that is the furthest thing from the truth. As I said when President Obama won the election, when he does something good he deserves credit. But when he bows down to Nancy Pelosi and congressional leftists, essentially handing over the reins to this sled known as The United States, that scares me. And that is something that has happened far too much in the first five months of his presidency and that is what leads to a lack of compromise on the Republicans part. Its so far left that if the Republicans were to give in, even a little bit, they are still very left of center. So what good does compromise do for the Republicans if the only two options are very left and pretty close to very left, not even close to the center.

As I said earlier, this is an emotions game, they point to one thing as they do another, in hopes of making the people feel bad about it. The Democrats know that with an election in 2010 they must take every chance they can get to continually make it look like Republicans are to blame for everything. And this is how they do it. Blaming lack of progress on the Republicans, whether they call them “the party of no” or blame “bickering” on them, Republicans get blamed. But again it can only be blamed on the extremely left leaning ideas presented.

What may look like a lot of fast work and a good effort trying to get stuff done on the part of the President, turns into what can only be looked at as a get it done while we can approach. I think that he doesn’t think the Democrats will gain seats in the 2010 elections. Which on my part is a fair assessment, considering how the proverbial political pendulum works. But I also have think he wants, even more, to see these far left wing ideas passed before he looses that power. So putting blame on the Republicans turns into something that doesn’t guarantee anything, and is rooted in a hope that some people will fall for this trick. A hope that only he can believe in.